Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
